UConn, South Carolina, Texas and UCLA all made last year’s Final Four. This fall, those four teams were ranked atop the AP Top 25 Poll and although the weekly rankings changed little, they remained a step above the rest throughout the season. March is known for its craziness, but it seems almost inevitable that those teams – the four No. 1 seeds in this year’s women’s NCAA Tournament – will converge again for the Final Four, this time in Phoenix.
And what do you know? All four No. 1 seeds won their Sweet 16 games by more than 20 points and are just one game away from making it a reality.
However, no one is going to gift them a ticket to the desert; He still faces some fierce opposition. So, ahead of the Elite Eight starting on Sunday, here are our rankings — from least likely to most likely — of the four underdogs and their potential to pull off a major upset.
4. TCU (over South Carolina)
No. 1 South Carolina vs. No. 3 TCU, Monday, 9 p.m. ET
Olivia Miles surprised everyone by posting another triple-double with 28 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists in Saturday’s win against Virginia. Marta Suarez also led the way with 33 points and 10 boards. But as impressive as those stats were, the Horned Frogs were not in control the entire game.
As coach Mark Campbell pointed out, the third quarter was divisive. This has been a trend all season, which will be dangerous against a team like South Carolina that can come out strong and put games away in the first half.
“I think our team, and it’s been this whole year, I think we get a little too excited early on,” Miles said. “We have a lot of young pieces and new guys, obviously 10 freshmen still getting that chemistry game by game. It takes a quarter or a half for us to settle in, take their punches, realize what they’re doing to us and, as we’ve proven all year, we can calm down, mature, get ready and find our rhythm offensively and defensively.”
Virginia’s Cinderella run was impressive and this was a team that definitely should not have been counted out so easily. The Cavaliers were also trying to make a strong comeback in the fourth quarter. They deserve credit for what they accomplished, but Don Staley and the Gamecocks have a lot more experience on the big stage.
South Carolina, a 13.5-point favorite over TCU on DraftKings, is chasing a sixth consecutive Final Four appearance, which includes national championships in 2022 and 2024 and a runner-up finish last year. The Horned Frogs will need to close out the road before halftime on Monday if they want to be competitive. -Isabel Gonzalez
3. Notre Dame (over UConn)
No. 1 UConn vs. No. 6 Notre Dame, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
I want to be clear about one thing: It feels incredibly wrong to rank any team with Hannah Hidalgo playing the way she is so low on any list right now, no matter the context.
As UConn coach Geno Auriemma said Saturday– After taking the NCAA to task – Hidalgo’s race has been of a different kind this March. In this tournament, he has averaged 26.7 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and 8.7 steals per game. Against No. 2 Vanderbilt, it was just Three assists are less than a 30-point quadruple-doubleWhich looks fake even though I have seen it with my own two eyes.
“She’s a unique player who comes along once in a lifetime and has the ability to disrupt and cause chaos like I’ve never seen before,” Auriemma said.
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But, the thing is, UConn and Notre Dame have already faced off once this season. The Huskies won that game 85–47. And while the Fighting Irish are playing much better than in January and with KK Bransford back from injury, UConn is also playing better than in January.
Notre Dame, a surprising 27.5-point underdog, is the lowest-seeded team in the tournament and should be fourth on this list, as UConn almost never loses before the Final Four, especially when it is the No. 1 overall seed. But Hidalgo’s form this tournament has been so special that it makes me believe the impossible a bit. – lindsay gibbs
2. Michigan (over Texas)
No. 1 Texas vs. No. 2 Michigan, Monday, 7 p.m. ET
After Texas defeated Kentucky 76–54 in the Sweet 16, Kentucky coach Kenny Brooks said that Texas was “on another planet” and “as well-built a team as I have ever seen in women’s basketball.” Brooks is no newcomer to this world, so this is a perfectly accurate statement – and not an unfounded one.
So, why is Michigan second in these rankings? Well, because Michigan has already pushed two No. 1 seeds to the brink this season, losing to both UConn and UCLA by just three points. Sila Swords and Olivia Olson, Michigan’s superstar sophomore duo, have proven they are not afraid to face the most elite teams in the country.
Additionally, Michigan has had a great performance so far in this NCAA Tournament. In the Sweet 16, the Wolverines struggled in the first quarter against Louisville, and the game was still close in the third. But then Michigan went on a 20-2 run with the help of Olson and Swords.
Still, Michigan will need help to pull off the upset. In the Kentucky game, Texas point guard Rory Harmon jammed his middle finger, and he later told reporters that it was “really swollen.” Harmon didn’t seem to be concerned at all about the injury and I have no doubt that she will play on Monday evening.
However, if he isn’t himself, it could give Michigan (10.5-point underdog) the start it needs to shock the world. – Gibbs
1. Duke (at UCLA)
No. 1 UCLA vs. No. 3 Duke, Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
To be clear, these rankings were not easy as the No. 1 seeds have taken care of business effectively. However, for a few reasons Duke seems to have the best chance of pulling off an upset. ashlon jackson buzzer-beater It’s the kind of spark against LSU on Friday that could give a team the confidence it needs to pull off an even bigger upset. The win also showed how far the Blue Devils have come since the beginning of the season as LSU was one of their opening losses.
Interestingly, when UCLA saw Jackson’s shot on Friday, Bruins coach Corey Close said his players were “going crazy.”
On one hand, UCLA beat Duke 83–66 in the Players Era in November without Lauren and Sienna Bates. On the other hand, this is also a much better Duke team. Blue Devils coach Kara Lawson highlighted both sides of the argument and said her team needs to be aware that they have to play the best basketball they have played all season.
“We’re conscious of how much better we have to play to stay in the game, and we’re focused on developing a game plan against one of the best teams in the country,” Lawson said.
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The Bruins (11.5-point favorites) certainly have a scare, but nothing is guaranteed in March. UCLA got a 24-point win over Minnesota in the Sweet 16 on Friday, but the first half wasn’t as one-sided as the final score of 90-56 indicates. The Bruins only had a six-point lead at the break, while struggling to remain consistent on offense. Minnesota actually won the second quarter by holding UCLA to only 16 points.
Unproductive periods in March can be costly, so perhaps Duke can take advantage of them. The UCLA defense may be the biggest challenge as the Bruins rely on this zone when shots aren’t falling. One of the moments that helped them gain momentum against Minnesota was getting three blocks in a single possession – this is just how brutal the Bruins can be to their opponents.
Duke has several players who can add up to a lot of points in the Sweet 16 against LSU in Jackson (19 points), Toby Fournier (22) and Tania Meier (22). Having more than one primary scorer could put the Blue Devils in position to pull off surprises. – Gonzalez
