Just a month ago, it seemed like everything was clicking for the Chicago Cubs.
The offense was wearing down opposing pitching staffs with its depth. The defense was taking away potential hits from opposing hitters. And despite some starting injuries, the rotation was still getting the job done. It all led to a 27-12 start and a run to the top of the National League Central.
Then it all collapsed.
Chicago’s bats went silent and eventually injuries took their toll on the pitching staff and, suddenly, the Cubs traded their division lead for a spot in the basement.
After losing the first two games of a series in Colorado this week, the Cubs became the earliest team on the calendar to fall .500 after a 15-game finish in a season, according to ESPN Research. Only the 1996 San Diego Padres have come close, but after a 35–20 start, the Padres fell to .500 in late June. The Cubs did it on June 10.
Veteran pitcher Jameson Taillon was asked if doubt had crept in to a once confident and vibrant locker room.
The injured starter replied, “I don’t know about the doubt.” “We all know what we’re still capable of. It’s a matter of ‘What do we need to do to get back to a good team?’ I have no doubt that we can be such a good team. That being said, it would be nice to see it soon.”
Now that Chicago has won back-to-back games for the first time since May 28, can the team return to the form that caused Chicago a stir just a month ago? Or has this case of whiplash brought with it a broader realization — that the 2026 Cubs aren’t good enough?
Let’s check out the topics that will decide where the season goes from here.
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Crime
From Opening Day through May 8, the Cubs had the highest-scoring offense in baseball, averaging 5.51 runs per game. Since then, he has scored a scant 3.4 times per game – good for 29th in the game during that time frame.
Chicago’s biggest offseason splash, Alex Bregman, was recently blamed for the lineup’s woes after posting a .686 OPS and a career-worst 16.7 strikeout rate in his first 68 games with the team.
“I haven’t hung up all year,” Bregman said last week. “With runners in scoring position, I’ve been very bad. I need to get better. If I’m better the last several games, we’ll probably win most of them… They brought me here to play good baseball, and I haven’t played good baseball. I need to figure that out.”
While Bregman’s meager production wasn’t what the Cubs had in mind when they signed the 32-year-old infielder to a $175 million deal last offseason, he’s not the only star in Chicago’s lineup who isn’t getting work at the plate.
Shortstop Dansby Swanson was ruled out for a few games earlier this week as his offensive problems continued to worsen. Among 158 qualified hitters, Swanson’s .178 batting average is the second lowest behind San Diego’s Manny Machado. Second baseman Nico Hoerner has been hitting under .200 since May 8 after a promising start to the season, and Matt Shaw and Moises Ballesteros have struggled to find consistency while being in and out of the lineup.
“The backbone of our team is our position players,” Cubs president Jed Hoyer said. “For us to be a good team they have to play well.”
If the Cubs are going to turn it around, they know it starts with getting power from the entire lineup – just as they did a season ago. Since their journey to the bottom of the standings began on May 8, Cubs hitters rank just 23rd in home runs per game, and their four home run leaders from last season (along with Bregman) are all on pace for fewer long balls.
“Michael Bush hit 34 home runs last year,” Hoyer said. “Pete (Crowe-Armstrong) hit over 30. Siya (Suzuki) hit over 30. Ian (Happ), Dansby in the 20s. Bregman should be hitting homers. Our guys who hit homers aren’t hitting homers and ultimately that’s the challenge.”
The Cubs are seeing many more pitches breaking during their slump, from 33% at the start of the season to 37% over the past month. This collectively results in a higher launch angle – 13.9 degrees to 16.9 – because those pitches are partially lofted as hitters are coming off the front of the ball.
“A lot of it has to do with some of the sliders and breaking balls we’ve seen and the increase in changeups,” Cubs coach Dustin Kelly said. “I don’t want super high launch angles. I want line drives into the gap, but no, guys aren’t sold.”
The importance of collective production from up and down the lineup has increased because even when things are going well, the Cubs do not feature the type of superstar hitters who can sustain their attack for weeks at a time like some of the teams at the top of the standings do. Think Aaron Judge for the New York Yankees, Shohei Ohtani for the Los Angeles Dodgers or even another top slugger the Cubs saw in action last week.
“There’s no doubt about it, watching (Athletics first baseman) Nick Kurtz in that series, he’s a superstar hitter in the middle of the order, and every time he’s up, if you’re a fan, you can’t look away, and if you’re me, you’re hoping for a good result,” Hoyer said. “I don’t think we have that kind of middle-order player. There aren’t many guys like that out there.
“But we have one of the deepest offenses in baseball. Period.”
Cruising
Getting the best version of that deep offense is paramount, because while there are potential solutions to many of Chicago’s lineup problems, the Cubs are running out of options to fix their pitching issues. Rival scouts and executives point to the team’s mounting injuries and lack of pitching depth as long-term issues that could ultimately sink the Cubs.
One scout said, “Even during his 10-game losing streak, which was mostly due to a lack of scoring, he never felt right on the mound.”
Long before that skid, injuries impacted the rotation for the first time when rising star Cade Horton was lost for the season on April 3. Veteran left-hander Matthew Boyd entered the injured list after a month with a knee injury and was recently dealt a blow when he began experiencing shoulder pain that will delay his return. Then Taillon went on the IL this week with a hamstring strain, leaving the Cubs without 60% of their opening day rotation.
The two remaining members of that group – Shota Imanaga and Edward Cabrera – have also struggled over the past month. Imanaga finally offered some cause for optimism with five scoreless innings after allowing 26 runs in his previous four starts in Colorado, and similarly, Cabrera pitched well against the Rockies on June 5 against the Giants after allowing eight runs in 3⅔ innings.
All told, the Cubs’ starting staff leads only the Rockies in ERA in the NL, while giving up an MLB-high 67 home runs.
There has been one clear bright spot, however: right-hander Ben Brown, who has posted a 1.44 ERA in six starts since being moved from the bullpen to the rotation. But the 26-year-old, who has made only 29 career starts, won’t anchor the rotation alone, and the question is who will step up to help Chicago climb back in the standings.
What does this mean for trading deadlines
One thing should be clear to the 26 players in the Cubs clubhouse right now: The trade deadline isn’t going to solve their problems for them — especially in the lineup.
Hoyer recently said the deadline is “the furthest thing from my mind,” while also acknowledging that his trade focus will be on adding an impact bat to help on the mound.
“Our group of position players is deep and it’s pretty organized,” he explained. “We’ll consider pitching at that time. (But) sitting here and talking about the deadline, considering how we’ve played, is the wrong thing to do.”
The more important topic is whether the Cubs can start racking up enough wins to give their front office a reason to make a splash at the deadline. According to FanGraphs, the Cubs’ playoff chances have dropped to 43.8% and with the Brewers distancing themselves at the top of the NL Central, Chicago’s division chances have dropped to 6.9% and only a 1.6% chance of earning a bye in the opening round.
“Your World Series chances are probably going to be related to your chances of getting a bye, and getting a bye is a big deal,” Hoyer said. “Most of their aggression is based on the ability to get bye.”
But Hoyer also says it’s too early to completely write off the Cubs’ hopes in 2026.
“Sometimes when you’re winning, winning finds you,” he said recently.
And, as Chicago has found out over the past month, sometimes the opposite is true.
