The US began mine-clearing efforts over the weekend. Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of CENTCOM, said US forces would begin “the process of establishing a new route” that “will soon be shared with the maritime industry to encourage the free flow of commerce.”
The US took this step after Iran’s blockade of the strait not only increased energy prices but also increased fertilizer prices and threatened the economies of countries around the world.
Tehran has repeatedly ignored Trump’s demands to reopen the waterway, and instead has begun charging some ships millions of dollars for Hormuz transit.
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Sailor takes long journey home from Strait of Hormuz
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CENTCOM said it would give more details about its plans to commercial seafarers through a formal notice before the blockade begins on Monday.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned that any military ships attempting to proceed towards Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire agreement agreed between Washington and Tehran and would receive a strong response.
Iran’s armed forces said the blockade amounted to “theft”.
risk and reward
Andreas Craig, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, said imposing a US blockade would be a complex, “high-risk” and legally contentious endeavor.
“In practice, this will look less like a clean historic blockade and more like a disorganized, high-risk interdiction regime,” he said.
The US, he said, would need to identify, track, hail, divert and perhaps even board ships bound for Iranian ports “while operating in one of the world’s most congested and politically sensitive waterways.”
By early Monday, hours before the blockade was implemented, ships had largely moved away from the strait, with real-time and historical vessel tracking provided by Kepler showing that there were significantly fewer ships in the area than the day before.
Krieg said enforcement would likely rely on a mix of naval patrols, surveillance, maritime warnings, allied intelligence and selective interdiction to ensure ships actively avoid the strait. He said this could also include boarding ships, as was seen in Venezuela.
Bandwidth could become a real issue for the US, he said, while mine-clearing efforts could put US ships at risk.
