One day of negotiations, one “final” offer, no solution.
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Negotiators from Washington and Tehran on Sunday left little to show for talks in Pakistan, raising fears of renewed fighting between the two sides.
Both Vice President J.D. Vance and Iranian officials said significant differences remain in the search for an agreement that could end the war more permanently, although a fragile two-week ceasefire still remains in place.
“We were negotiating in good faith,” Vance said at a news conference. “We’re going in here with a very simple proposal, a method of understanding that is our final and best proposal. We’ll see whether the Iranians accept it or not.”
With only eight days left in the current ceasefire, failure to reach a more permanent settlement in Pakistan raises the possibility of a return to war, in which President Donald Trump has threatened to destroy an entire civilization, with the death toll already in the thousands and impact on the global economy.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the delegation to Pakistan, said on Sunday that the US failed to gain Iran’s confidence during talks in Islamabad.
In a post on Twitter, Ghalibaf said his allies presented a “forward-looking initiative” but the US was unable to “gain the confidence of the Iranian delegation”, pointing to a history of failed negotiations and agreements.
Iranian state media said that “excessive demands” destroyed the possibility of an agreement.
Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting said on Telegram that the two sides could not reach consensus on several key matters, including the Strait of Hormuz and the development of nuclear technology in the country.
The main point of difference in Pakistan, Vance said, was whether Iran would commit not to develop nuclear weapons.
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“We haven’t seen it yet. We hope we will,” he said. A previous agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions was negotiated under Barack Obama in 2015, but the first Trump administration broke that agreement in 2018.
Trump said Sunday that the meeting went well and “there was agreement on most points.”
“But the only point that really mattered, the nuclear one, was not there,” he wrote on Truth Social.
Pakistan, whose government mediated US-Iran talks, has urged the US and Iran to maintain the ceasefire despite peace talks in Islamabad producing no agreement to end the war.
In a post on X, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar described the 21-hour summit as both intense and constructive, saying nations should maintain the “positive spirit” of the talks, move forward with the goal of region-wide “peace and prosperity” and pledge to stop attacks against each other.
“It is important that the parties maintain their commitment to the ceasefire,” he said.
He said, as soon as this happens, Pakistan will stand firm.
Iranian officials have not released a recent death toll, but US-based rights group HRANA puts the total number of people killed in Iran at around 3,400, including more than 1,600 civilians.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil passed before the war, remains at a virtual standstill and oil prices continue to rise.
US warships are setting conditions to safely reopen passage after Iran laid mines in a key shipping lane, US Central Command said. Meanwhile, Trump said the US would impose its own blockade on the strait, and accused Iran of trying to extort ships to pass.
“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the finest in the world, will begin the process of intercepting any and all vessels attempting to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz,” he wrote on Truth Social. In a second post, he again accused Iran of trying to block the strait, despite saying it would block it itself.
But as Iran maintains its dominance over the strait and the risk to tankers remains unresolved, the focus turns to what happens next. Analysts say the failure in Islamabad reflects deep, long-standing divisions that go far beyond a round of talks.
“It’s no surprise that the US-Iran talks did not end with any diplomatic success,” Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, told NBC News.
The Iranian side sees the Strait of Hormuz as “its most powerful weapon,” he said, while the Americans want it “opened up right away.” Meanwhile, the US insistence that Tehran limit uranium enrichment and withdraw its existing stockpile is a “nonstarter” for the Iranians, he said.
Vance and his team went into the negotiating sessions and actually asked the Iranians to “surrender,” Gerges said. “The Iranians will say, ‘You have not defeated Iran. We will not surrender, we want to bargain, we want to negotiate, because we have asserted our control over the Strait of Hormuz.'”
Danny Citrinowicz, a senior Iran researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies affiliated with Tel Aviv University in Israel, said both sides came to the table with the impression that they had won.
“It’s not that the Iranians want to escalate tensions, but I think they prefer to escalate tensions rather than dictatorship,” he said. “They feel they have the upper hand.”
While Vance said a “final” U.S. proposal was on the table, Citrinowicz said “there is no doubt that behind the scenes mediators are trying to reach common ground.”
“After 21 hours you can’t say it’s all over,” he said. “These are complex issues.”
Gerges said the 2015 nuclear deal took about two years to finalize, and it was not sealed during the war. “I think there’s still a long way to go,” he said.
