Keir Starmer’s pledge to “destroy the gangs” profiting from small boat crossings follows a pattern of Conservative-led governments deploying “increasing rhetoric” with little evidence it can be delivered, an expert has claimed.
Madeleine Sumption, director of Oxford University’s Migration Observatory, says the Prime Minister has repeated the mistakes of Rishi Sunak and David Cameron by making “bold claims with very little certainty about things that governments only partially control”.
The governments of Britain and France are sparring over a new deal to prevent people smuggling gangs from operating in the Channel. Starmer announced his promise to “destroy gangs” ahead of the 2024 general election, but faces growing criticism from opposition parties for failing to curb the number of people arriving in Britain.
As of February 25, 2,209 people had arrived in the UK in small boats in 2026 – an increase of almost 7% compared to the same period in 2025.
Starmer ignored criticism of the slogan at Prime Minister’s Question Time last week when Nigel Farage accused it of being a “complete, utter failure”.
Sumption, whose book What Is Immigration Policy For? Published on Tuesday, and who is also a member of the government’s independent migration advisory committee, said: “Governments of all kinds love to make bold claims, from ‘stop the boats’ and ‘break up the gangs’ to ‘net migration falling below 100,000’.
“In practice the results have been disappointing, because factors beyond their control have played a huge role. These include EU membership; in the case of net migration, France’s willingness to cooperate on asylum policy; or the widespread, decentralized activities of smuggling gangs that are very difficult for the government to control.”
Sumption said successive ministers have felt unable to be honest with the public about the possibility that their policies will not work.
“People say they want their politicians to be honest, but when it comes to immigration policies the most honest political pitch often doesn’t work. Saying ‘We don’t know if this will work or not, but we’ll try it, and if it fails, we’ll try something new’ won’t go over very well on the campaign trail.
“So, instead, immigration debates tend to make bold claims with great certainty about things that governments only partially control. This is not a party-political point: we see this problem in administrations around the world,” he said.
When Sunak was Prime Minister in 2023 he announced a promise to “stop the boats” – a slogan which was then used at lectures and included in social media clips. After losing the 2024 general election to Starmer, Sunak admitted that it was “too harsh, too binary”.
Cameron, who was Prime Minister between 2010 and 2016, promised to reduce annual net migration from “hundreds of thousands” to “tens of thousands”. By 2015, this figure had reached more than 300,000.
Downing Street has been contacted for comment.
