Quantum Computer Encryption Apocalypse Is NearAdventure – Getty Images
Here’s what you’ll learn when you read this story:
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Current quantum computers don’t have enough qubits to crack classical encryption methods, but new research suggests that breaching such a limit may require significantly fewer qubits than previously estimated.
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Until recently, researchers thought that schemes like elliptic-curve cryptography (ECC) would require 20 million qubits to crack, but a new preprint from Caltech has reduced that number to just 10,000.
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This improved performance mostly comes from better error correction through non-local communication, which increases the fault tolerance of quantum computers.
The coming era of quantum computers is full of lots of possibilities. Qubits – the quantum version of classical bits – have the potential to solve extremely complex problems that today’s computers could never hope to tackle, thanks to their ability to take advantage of the quantum mechanical properties of superposition and critical condition. But with great power also comes great responsibility and these quantum technologies Too It has the dangerous potential to break classic cryptographic schemes like elliptic-curve cryptography (ECC, which is the backbone of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin) and 2048-bit RSA (one of the oldest public-key cryptosystems), which ensure the security of our online lives.
Until relatively recently, researchers speculated that quantum computer possibly required at least 20 million qubits to break this type of cryptosystem, but a new study by researchers at Caltech has substantially revised those numbers down to 10,000 qubits. At the moment, no quantum computer is even close to this number – most recently Caltech Its 6,100-qubit array to be revealed in late 2025And most commercial quantum computers hover around 1,000 qubits maximum. But the new revised estimate – detailed in a paper uploaded preprint server arXiv– This means the encryption apocalypse is probably closer than we thought.
At the heart of this breakthrough is a new quantum error-correction architecture that is far more efficient than previous machines. The problem with qubits is that they can be defective (due to large-scale thermal noise or dissipation), but additional qubits and careful construction can fix these quantum failures and eventually create machines.fault tolerant” For example, in a 6,100-atom qubit array, Caltech scientists used laser beams called “optical tweezersPrecisely arranging qubits, increasing entanglement. according to Ars TechnicaThe advantage of this arrangement is that each qubit participates in “non-local communication”, meaning that all physical qubits can interact with all other qubits.
“Unlike other quantum computing platforms, neutral atomic qubits can be directly coupled over large distances,” said paper co-author Manuel Andres of Caltech., Said in a press statement. “Optical tweezers can take an atom to the other end of the array and directly entangle it with another atom.”
The researchers estimated that a quantum computer with this new architecture would require only 9,998 qubits 1,000 days to crack ECC, and only 26,000 qubits to do so in a single day. As for RSA-2048, the machine will require approximately 100,000 Qubits and approximately 10 days. Another paper published by Google earlier this week speculates That 500,000 qubits could make modern encryption techniques obsolete just a few minutes. All of these methods require quantum computers, the number of which far exceeds what is technically possible today, but the estimates still represent a steep reduction from the millions researchers previously believed would be required.
“I have always considered theoretical research to be of great benefit to large-scale quantum algorithm “Only to be of interest in the distant future,” Hsin-Yuan, co-author of the study from Caltech and CTO of Oratomic (a quantum computing start-up), said in a press statement. “Our new study makes me realize that they may be true in the next few years.”
But even if these quantum computers eventually arrive, the world’s digital security infrastructure Suddenly quantum won’t be at the mercy of a shady group of hackers. researchers are together Investigating ways to develop quantum cryptography that can confuse even the most advanced quantum computers.
For decades, the quantum cryptographic arms race was a theoretical race, but in the next few years, it could turn into much more. Very Real.
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