Former State Department Deputy Special Envoy Eli Cohanim discusses the ongoing negotiations between US officials and Iran over its nuclear program on ‘The Bottom Line’.
Oil prices have risen more than 40% since the start of the Iran conflict, sending global energy markets into a tailspin and raising concerns that US drivers could see further increases at the pump.
Analysts say consumers have not yet felt the full impact, as it typically takes several weeks for the higher cost of crude to filter into retail gasoline prices. Even if oil stabilizes, pump prices may continue to rise in the near term.
“There’s likely more to come, as there is typically a gap between crude oil prices and the amount consumers pay at the pump,” said Phil Flynn, Fox Business contributor and senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.
Supply chain expert and University of Southern California professor Michael Mische also predicted that the worst is far from over, telling Fox Business: “There is more to come.”
“There is lag there and prices will continue to work their way through the system,” he said.
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Prices are seen at a gas station in Downtown Brooklyn, New York, United States on March 18, 2026. (Matthew Hoenn/Nurfoto via Getty Images/Getty Images)
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $99.64 a barrel on Friday, remaining higher after swings linked to the conflict. Although prices were on track for their first weekly decline in more than a month, they remain sharply higher than pre-conflict levels.
The rally comes after supply disruptions linked to US and Israeli attacks iranAnalysts estimate about 10 million to 11 million barrels per day have been withdrawn from global markets, leading to a supply shortfall.
Gas prices are displayed at a mobile gas station in the Kensington neighborhood of the Brooklyn borough of New York City on March 17, 2026. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
Geopolitical uncertainty is driving the market. The US has extended a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil shipments, while also considering additional military action. If the conflict subsides prices may fall, but are likely to remain above pre-conflict levels, while a prolonged increase could send prices rising.
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“Even with this supply shock, the increase has been relatively orderly — and it could have been much worse,” Flynn said.
But Mische said strong domestic production had helped mitigate the impact. “If we didn’t have the current US production levels, we would really be in a mess,” he said.
For consumers, gasoline prices have already begun to rise, but further increases may occur as the earlier surge in crude oil passes through the system.
High gas prices are listed at a Chevron gas station in Los Angeles on March 9, 2026, as gasoline prices rise amid the ongoing war with Iran. (Frederick J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)
According to AAA, the national average price of regular gasoline was about $3.98 per gallon — about 6 cents more than a week ago and about $1 more than a month ago. GasBuddy data shows a similar trend, with prices rising about 7 cents week over week and more than $1 in the past month.
The rise largely mirrors earlier gains in oil, and because retail fuel prices lag crude’s movements, analysts expect additional pressure in the coming weeks.
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Seasonal factors are also contributing. A shift to more expensive summer gasoline blends is underway, driving up refining costs and potentially keeping pump prices high even if crude oil stabilizes.
“Prices go up like a rocket and come down like a feather,” Mische said.
Reuters contributed to this report.
