The final quartet of teams has been determined in the 2026 men’s tournament, as we are UConn, Illinois, Michigan and Arizona. One of these teams will cut down the net, but before we get there, they have to make it to the semi-finals on Saturday night.
No. 3 Illinois opened as a 2.5-point favorite over No. 2 UConn in the first semifinal at 6:09 p.m., while No. 1 Michigan was a 1.5-point favorite over fellow No. 1 Arizona in the nightcap at 8:49 p.m.
Currently, Arizona and Michigan are at the top of the futures board for winning national championships.
Here are our college basketball analyst’s favorite bets for the semifinal round.
from obstacles DraftKings Sportsbook. Odds are accurate at the time of publication and are subject to change.
(1) Michigan and (1) Arizona under 72.5 in first half
Mark Zino (analyst): These are the two best defense lines in the country. They are also the two top offenses in the country. But that’s why I’m willing to look down. I’m using the same logic I used for my Duke/UConn first-half play. The only other reference point we have for Michigan against such a good defense was against Duke, in a game that finished 68-63, and the pregame total there was 151.5.
The only reference point we have for Arizona are the two contests against Houston. The regular season matchup totaled 142.5 and the Big 12 Tournament final was 138.5. We’re at 157.5 here for this game, and that seems too high to me.
Michigan and Duke combined for just 68 points in the first half. The regular season matchup between Arizona and Houston featured only 67 points in the opening half. In the Big 12 Finals, they allowed 80 points in the first half, but both teams were playing their third game in three days, and it was natural to expect the defense to lag at that point.
These teams will have six days to prepare for each other, due to which security will have to be tight in the beginning. Add in the fact that the game is at Lucas Oil Stadium and the sight lines will be different. There have been three other Final Fours at this location. In 2021, the totals for both the national semi-finals were 145.5 and 134. I still think we have a lot to hope for with the defense being dominant early in the day.
