EMiliband clearly faces a dilemma. Reform UK is suggesting new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea as a way to cut fuel bills and they’re steadily gaining cheerleaders – not just in the media, but in anything trade unions.
Labor – which came to power on a green-friendly manifesto, much of which has already been abandoned, but whose original intention was to prioritize green over fossil energy – is in a bind. It is clear that the latest discovery of the North Sea would be contrary to every principle of the party, and especially to the principles of Miliband, whose legacy will be his career-long commitment to a tough, stubborn, certainly often exhausting and frustrating legislative fight against climate disruption. And yet, equally clearly, Nigel Farage’s pressure is about to get more intense: he has framed the issue of North Sea oil and gas versus renewable energy as a fundamental battle between the common man and the elite. The vociferous don’t care about your livelihood crisis, while the hard right does.
The war in the Middle East is reinforcing the narrative of reform, reinforcing a sense of scarcity and fear, a perception that we are all being thrown around by the whims of elites, and a longing for some measure of independence from the world’s chaotic energy markets. The oil crisis has not yet unfolded, because most of the world is living on oil that came before Donald Trump’s bombast began. As prices rise and we find ourselves in yet another cost-of-living crisis inflicted by yet another autocratic lunatic, no amount of rationalization will take away the feeling that the government should have done more, should have prepared better, should have got us out of this mess. No one will blame the Reformation and, realistically, neither can they: Farage makes a lot of noise, but his impact on the world stage is limited. But he could have a huge impact on the national narrative.
The plan has already started working, and it’s showing in strange ways: A recent survey finds more greens are in favor of drilling in the North Sea oppose it (38%) compared to (33%). Miliband’s close watchers are tracking his every move, trying to divine his red lines: his decision not to attend the renewable energy transition conference in Colombia later this month, which the UK has always strongly supported, has worried campaigners, but not so much as the thought that he might next renege on his opposition to drilling in the North Sea, which would be disastrous for optics.
The Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, in other words, finds himself with the same choices as the Home Secretary: how to respond to pressure from the right? Do you accept its “legitimate concerns” and complement its proposals with your own watered-down version? Anyway, how is it going for Shabana Mehmood? What impact is his anti-immigrant rhetoric having on party unity? To what extent can Labour’s lack of support in the polls be blamed on their vocal abandonment of the party’s core values? We can debate that another day, because as similar as the physics of Miliband and Mahmood’s positions are, the issues of drilling and small boats are not at all similar to each other, unless they both occur at sea.
The Conservatives opened the 33rd licensing round in October 2022 – prompting the full outrage of the opposition – and even then, before any oil crisis, before reform posed any real threat, it was a posturing rather than a practical idea. The North Sea is not as attractive a prospect for investors. This is the equivalent of the last people standing when the Oil Beds nightclub closed – only a quarter of a block gained any bid. Free market fanatics blame the windfall profits tax, which was also announced for 2022, but we can file that under “Turkeys complaining about Christmas”, or more accurately, “Turkeys complaining about Christmas”. Energy companies were enjoying record profits due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, and their reluctance to invest in new licenses was emphatically not because they were struggling to survive.
So, if Labor were to announce a new round of licensing now, the bills would be hit Zero in the immediate term and minimum in the medium term. Even if they sell immediately – which they won’t – the wells will take five to seven years to become productive. And even if we could limit energy produced in Britain to the UK market – which we cannot – it would not change the fundamental structure of that market, including the costs Fossil fuel prices are largely determined by. If the barrel price of oil is increasing worldwide, our unit price is also increasing; Five years after the fact, scraping together some debris from the North Sea is futile.
A creative way to protect households from price rises and our body politic from the upheavals of world affairs would be to split the energy market into clean energy and fossil energy, whereby investing more heavily in renewable energy would have an immediate impact on bills, as well as the long-term benefit of tackling climate breakdown. The global context is handing us this narrative on a plate: freedom, resilience and sustainability will only come from wind, solar and (currently neglected) hydrogen. It’s a rare moment when the right thing to do for the future aligns with what’s cheapest, while also making a fundamentally political story. The story of the North Sea is a story of decline and obsolescence; is the story of wind energy One of abundance and discovery. Indeed, UK wind and solar power has been break a record According to Carbon Brief, since the Middle East crisis began.
So, the real mystery is why this is presented as a dilemma at all. There is no world in which Labor can get even a little closer to reform, overcome the fear and ameliorate the struggles of concerned voters by engaging a nostalgic imagination that can’t keep the lights on. There is also no point in reducing the commitment to renewable energy and promising energy price caps, which is the political equivalent of keeping our heads down until the crisis is over.
The only way to emerge from the pressures of the far right coupled with the rising cost of living is to get better at storytelling, starting with telling a story that is true, building the practical radicalism that is needed. Faraz is beating an empty oil drum; There is no need to drop everything and dance with Shram.
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Zoe Williams is a Guardian columnist
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Guardian Newsroom: Can Labor come back from the brink?
On Thursday 30 April, join Gabby Hinsliffe, Zoe Williams, Polly Toynbee and Raphael Behar as they discuss how much of a threat Labor faces from the Green Party and Reform UK – and whether Keir Starmer can survive as leader. book tickets here or on guardian.live
