Research has shown that opening up major new fields in the North Sea would make almost no difference to the UK’s dependence on gas imports.
The Jackdaw field, one of the largest untapped gas fields in the North Sea, will displace only 2% of the UK’s current imports of gas, leaving the UK still almost entirely dependent on supplies from Norway and a few other sources.
The Rosebank field, also in Scottish waters but predominantly oil-rich, would displace only 1% of UK gas imports.
Tessa Khan, executive director of campaign group Uplift, which compiles data from public sources, said: “New fields like Jackdaw and Rosebank will do little to boost UK gas production. Even in the most optimistic scenario, and assuming none of its gas is exported, Jackdaw will provide only 2% of UK demand over its nine to 12-year lifetime.”
This has already been shown, by Authorities including the UK Energy Research CenterThat new drilling will not lower oil and gas prices, or improve the UK’s energy security. It is also unlikely to create sustainable jobs major new tax revenuesAs in 90% of the UK’s North Sea oil and gas has already been burnedPutting the industry into huge and irreparable decline. Companies are also seeking tax breaks to tap new sectors that are harder to access than existing supply.
But Ed Miliband, the secretary of state for energy security and net zero, is under pressure from the fossil fuel industry, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, some trade unions and the Conservatives to give the green light to Jackdaw and Rosebank, which do not fall within the ban on new licenses for North Sea drilling because their applications were already in the system when Labor took office.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves has previously spoken in favor of drilling, although at the recent G7 energy meeting she emphasized renewable energy as a solution to the recurring oil crisis.
The Guardian understands that Miliband has not yet made any decisions on any areas, and is still considering the potential impacts. Britain is likely to be one of about 50 countries represented at a major climate conference in Colombia later this month, at which governments will embark on plans to phase out fossil fuels.
The owner of the Jackdaw field, Adura Energy, has been asked by the North Sea regulator to answer new questions related to the license application, including greenhouse gas emissions. That process could take several weeks, if not more, meaning there is unlikely to be an imminent decision.
Any decisions on the Rosebank area can be taken separately from Jackdaw. Khan said: “Rosebank is oil for profit, not our security. Its reserves – which if burned, could put the UK in breach of its climate commitments – are primarily oil for export. It has the potential to reduce the UK’s annual gas import dependency by just 1% on average.”
Philip Evans, a senior climate campaigner at Greenpeace UK, said: “Our fossil fuels are provided by a volatile global market that we cannot control, and which is routinely overturned by reckless wars and blockades. The only path to real security is to leave fossil fuels behind as quickly as possible.”
A spokesperson for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero told the Guardian: “Our priority is to deliver a fair, orderly and prosperous transition in the North Sea, in line with our climate and legal obligations, which drives our clean energy future of energy security, lower bills and good long-term jobs.”
Data from the End Fuel Poverty Coalition on Friday showed that valuations of oil and gas companies had soared as a result of the war in Iran. In just a month since the conflict began, BP’s market capitalization has increased by almost a quarter, adding £17 billion to the company’s value, while global oil giant Exxon Mobil has increased by almost a fifth, to £87 billion. Shell’s share price was up 15% by Friday, adding about £25 billion to the company’s market capitalisation, while Chevron’s was up about £45 billion, a rise of 17%.
Simon Francis, coordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said: “This is not a market serving the public interest, this is a market rewarding companies whose products are driving up bills that millions of families can’t pay.”
He said families are still struggling with the impact of rising energy bills linked to the last oil crisis, which began in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. He said, “This has left households with huge amounts of energy debt and struggling to make ends meet. It is clear that we need long-term reform to prevent history repeating itself and the fuel poverty crisis staying with us for decades.”
