A happy young black businessman using his voice assistant on his smartphone. – Prostock-Studio // Shutterstock
Artificial Intelligence is not replacing software engineers (yet)
Throughout most of 2024 and 2025, a particular task force narrative dominated the technology press: Artificial Intelligence will eat Software engineer first. Argument explored. If AI can write code, why keep paying expensive engineers to do it?
New research from expansiveReal-time workforce data from more than 8,700 companies tells a different story. Hiring for software engineers is on the rise – and that’s what really makes the point about how AI is reshaping tech jobs.
Overall hiring for software engineers remains stable
In short, Pave’s data does not support the AI ​​displacement narrative. Since the fourth quarter of 2023, software engineers have accounted for between 19.3% and 22.5% of all new hires joining Pave’s dataset each quarter – a sign of stability and resilience, not instability.
More importantly, the overall hiring numbers paint an even better picture: A consistent group of companies that contributed to Paave’s real-time dataset over the past two years, hired 9.0% more software engineers in 2025 compared to 2024.
Data line chart showing the percentage of new hires in software engineering roles over time (Q4 2023 to Q1 2026). – expansive
If AI were systematically displacing software engineers, you would expect to see all of these numbers decline. They are not.
One explanation for this surprising result is jevons paradoxAn old economics concept that says: As a resource becomes more efficient to use, total consumption of that resource increases, not decreases. AI tools certainly make software engineers more productive, so perhaps those productivity gains are increasing demand for engineering talent rather than eliminating jobs.
On the surface this is good news. However, these aggregate hiring figures obscure talent shifts worth examining more closely.
Junior talent is being lost in the AI ​​era
A deeper dive into the data reveals that companies are prioritizing experienced engineering talent as AI adoption accelerates. Since Q4 2023, the percentage of all software engineers in entry-level individual contributor roles (levels P1 and P2 in Paave’s job architecture system) has steadily declined from a high of 22.9% to a low of 16.7% by Q3 2025. Meanwhile, senior individual contributors (levels P5 and P6) have increased from 9.1% to 11.6% of all software engineers. The chart below does not show mid-career individual contributors (levels P3 and P4), who still account for the majority of all software engineers.
A data line chart showing the shift towards more senior talent. – expansive
A related metric reinforces the trend. The average age of engineers is increasing in all major job family areas, including AI/ML engineering, hardware engineering, and software engineering. This suggests a growing bias towards senior talent beyond software engineering.
Data line chart showing average employee age by job family. – expansive
looking forward
News of the demise of software engineering is premature. As early as 2026, companies continue to hire software engineers in large quantities – although they increasingly concentrate that demand at the senior level of the experience spectrum.
For individuals considering software engineering as a career path, the implication is clear: technical skills alone can no longer adequately set you apart. future jobs Sit at the intersection of engineering ability and broader business judgment, including business acumen, communication skills and problem-solving. An education that develops those skills along with coding will likely be better than an education focused on technical execution alone.
For employers, the investment case is straightforward. Senior engineers who can direct and extend AI capabilities are becoming a real source of competitive advantage. In a market where this talent is already scarce, the cost of hiring the best is rising rapidly.
this story was produced by expansive Reviewed and distributed by and stacker.
